New extra point rule
& fantasy implications
The NFL has decided to throw a curve ball at the fantasy
football world this year, by implementing the new extra point rule. It may not
seem like a big deal to some, but there is reason for fantasy GMs to take
notice. So we at Fantasy JoneZ have decided to give you a breakdown of the
fantasy implications the new extra point rule may have.
Rule Explanation
So what changed? Well the NFL voted to lengthen the distance
for extra point attempts from the 2 yard line to the 15 yard line. Teams now
have the option of attempting an extra point from the 15 yard line or
attempting a 2-point conversion from the 2 yard line. The new rule also now
allows defenses to return 2-point conversion turnovers for 2 points of their
own.
What will NFL teams do?
The majority
of NFL head coaches are not risk takers. This is why, when given the option,
they choose to take the extra point the majority of the time. With kickers
making 99.9% of extra points, it’s almost a no-brainer for coaches. But what if
more risk were added to that extra point attempt? That is exactly what this new
rule has done.
So let’s
take a look at the math. Last season NFL kickers averaged 90% for successful
field goals from the 15 yard line. That is a 10% drop from the 99.9% average of
successful PATs from the 2 yard line. The average success rate for 2-point
conversions has hovered around 49% over the last decade. With the old rule, a
team would record 9.9 points out of 10 attempts by kicking the extra point.
They would record 9.8 points out of 10 attempts by attempting a 2-point
conversion. The extra point is favored here. With the new rule, however, the
percentage for successful extra points drops to 90%. So, in the same scenario
using the new rule, a team would record 9 points out of 10 attempts by kicking
and 9.8 points out of 10 on 2-point conversions.
The math
says to go for 2 every time, but this will not be the case. One factor will be
time and score. If a team is down by 1 point with very little time left in the
game, it’s very likely the coach chooses to take the extra point. It also
depends on kicking talent. The average around the league may have been 90%, but
some kickers were far higher. Connor Barth, for instance, was 100% between
30-39 yards last season, while Billy Cundiff was 77% from this distance. And,
of course weather will definitely play a factor as well later in the season. The
weather alone in November and December may dictate how often. Teams like
Philly, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Seattle all
play outside in inclement weather. Given the option to kick a 32 yard extra
point in the wind, snow, or rain or to attempt a 2-point conversion from the 2,
most teams will choose the latter.
It will of
course depend on the coach, but expect to see plenty of 2-point conversion
attempts in 2015. The extra point is not being done away with either. Let's be
honest, it’s still easier for a coach to blame a kicker than himself.
How much value is added to fantasy
defenses?
Now that
defenses are able to return 2-point conversion turnovers, it does add some
value to defenses, but very little. Since fantasy football drafting websites began
back in the late 90s, defenses have only returned turnovers for TDs from the
oppositions 2 yard line .004% of the time. Using this average, defenses would
have to see 250 2-point conversion attempts before they converted a turnover
into a TD. While the turnover itself may also award 2 points, there is not
enough value here to warrant an owner moving a defense up in his/her draft.
What about kicker value?
Generally,
you want to save your very last draft pick for your kicker. There’s not a lot
of thought that needs to go into choosing a kicker. Just choose best available
we always say. Not all kickers are created equal, though. Some kickers are far
more accurate from 32 yards and the new rule will benefit them the most (or
their team, rather). Some kickers may be 100% on extra points in 2015, while
others may struggle at 75%. Using an average of 2 attempts per game, that only
gives the better kickers an 8 FFP advantage by season’s end. Another situation
that does not warrant an owner moving a kicker’s draft position any higher than
the last round.
So where is the true value?
Make no
doubt about it. NFL teams will attempt far more 2-point conversions in 2015
than any previous years. The positions that should see the most value are the
RBs and read-option QBs. An average of
one successful 2-point conversion a game will net an additional 32 FFPs. That’s
enough for a guy like Cam Newton to finish better than Tony Romo or Matt Ryan. Or
LeSean McCoy to finish better than CJ Anderson or Matt Forte. It also moves
power backs like Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, & Jeremy Hill
up cheat sheets. TEs and WRs may benefit as well. Big targets like Jimmy
Graham, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones all could see an uptick in FFPs.
Summary
Keep in mind
that if a team has attempted to go for a 2-point conversion, they may be more
likely to attempt it again in that game. Either they had success the first time
and feel confident, or they were unsuccessful the first time and need a 2-point
conversion to tie.
When
drafting be aware of the teams that have head coaches who are likely to go for
2. Teams like New England, Seattle, or Philadelphia. Skill positions on these
teams may be more valuable to you.
The new rule
change may lead to more offensive points, but defenses in the NFL always make
adjustments. Don’t reach for players just because you feel they may get a lot
of 2-point conversion opportunities.
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